3rd Quarter 2026 Hamakua Coast Market Update

The pace of newly pending contracts in the first half of 2026 was down 20% compared with the first half of 2025. Also in 2026, it has become clear that contract terminations have been rising steadily over the past 18 months. What’s driving the change?

Buyers terminate contracts for various reasons in different markets. For sheer numbers of terminations, look back to 2021. It was the beginning of the local Covid buying mania. Mainland buyers were throwing money at rural Hawaiʻi acreage, often sight-unseen. At the same time contracts were cancelling due to a number of factors: Buyer remorse at overpaying in a bidding war. Change of mind when the property was viewed in person. Something better appeared on the market. These are terminations typical of any over-exuberant market.

Moving forward to our current market, contract terminations started to steadily build in early 2025. Not five or six per month as we saw in 2021, but two to four, consistently.

Furthermore, we have seen that buyers who have terminated contracts this year have not suddenly jumped on another purchase. They are sitting aside.

Fortunately, though, there are plenty of qualified buyers – and they are mostly local these days, not mainlanders – but they are increasingly hesitant to get into contract. Those who do are increasingly prone to terminating for reasons unrelated to property condition. We are clearly experiencing a jumpy period in this market, which is an economically rational and healthy response to national and geopolitical turmoil, exacerbated by weather events.

On a positive note, however, new contracts suddenly picked up in the last few days of June and were steady through July as I write this.

Give me a call if you have questions or would like a closer look at the numbers.